Even though it had been rumored for months, U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu finally pulled the trigger recently on a major campaign shakeup that moved control over to a few Big Easy insiders.
It sets the stage for what will be a memorable, if not downright nasty, ground game in New Orleans, home to a Democratic voting bloc that has helped Landrieu overcome the odds in the past.
There’s new campaign manager Ryan Berni, who ran her brother’s mayoral re-election campaign earlier this year and is a protégé of Democratic consultant James Carville. Joining him is Norma Jane Sabiston, who has been in the trenches with Landrieu in other tough elections, has a reputation as a problem-solver and, most importantly, is a true friend of the family who can run interference on just about all fronts.
Berni replaces Adam Sullivan, who was said to be bumping heads with the campaign’s top-tier shot callers.
Landrieu has been here before, having canned her manager pre-primary in 2008. But it was early in the cycle then, not roughly three weeks before election day. It sends mixed messages to supporters, although many are willing to accept the reasoning.
While the Landrieu team is still swinging for the fences in hopes of scoring a victory on Nov. 4, pulling in the new players now allows the campaign to begin preparing immediately for a runoff possibility while maintaining focus on the primary. Still, a shift in management wasn’t expected to occur until a runoff was made certain by voters.
To be certain, New Orleans is as important as ever, if not more, for Landrieu. And with two handlers who know the city in and out, from Uptown to the Lower Ninth Ward, there’s no doubting where the senator’s potential path to primary victory will have to first travel through.
Minority votes will be critical
Landrieu’s campaign sees two avenues in stopping Congressman Bill Cassidy’s Republican momentum: new registration figures and voter turnout. It would be an election upset to avoid a runoff, most consultants and pundits agree, but the strategy is moving forward in the hopes of striking gold.
While overall Democratic registration, by nearly 16,000 voters, and Republican registration, by about 1,100 voters, has gone down from January to October, the racial registration numbers show something different and it may favor Landrieu, at least on paper.
White registration is down by 7,700 voters over the same timeframe, while black registration has shot up by 7,100 voters. The “other” category, pulling in Hispanic and Asian voters, is up slightly, by 160 voters. Black registration made up 31.3 percent of the electorate earlier this month, compared with 30.6 percent of the electorate in fall 2010, the last time there was a mid-term election.
While that’s not nearly enough to sway an election, Democratic operatives contend a major last-minute registration push was made ahead of the recent cutoff date, particularly among black women. The Secretary of State’s Office, however, is still conducting a review to verify new voters, with the results expected to be released sometime this week.
Republican models at this point are assuming the black vote will not get above 25 percent, most all of which would go to Landrieu and may not be enough to win in the primary. Even if she does manage to increase the turnout in black communities, Landrieu still needs to get closer to obtaining 30 percent or more of the white vote, a category in which she has been stuck in the low 20s in recent polls.
“Those are the magic numbers and I don’t think they’ll be able to reach them,” said GOP consultant Roy Fletcher.
The one caveat Democrats are quick to add, an explanation for why they think a primary victory is possible, is the possibility that black voters are being under-sampled in polls.
“That does happen,” Fletcher said. “But I’m not sure it means that this race is as close as some like to believe.”
Dr. Silas Lee, a Democratic pollster and public policy professor at Xavier, said, “It’s a reality and definitely a consideration for the campaigns.”
Whether it’s from having only a cell phone or no line at all, Bernie Pinsonat, a partner with Southern Media and Opinion Research, said most professional pollsters already take that into account.
“You have to bake that in,” he said, adding there have been a few national polls that actually went in the other direction and over-sampled black voters.
Street campaigns could get dirty
With surrogates from the Congressional Black Caucus and former President Bill Clinton visiting Louisiana on behalf of Landrieu, there are still no obvious plans to include President Barack Obama in the mix.
Considering how unpopular he is in the state, it’s no wonder. But scuttlebutt continues about 11th-hour robocalls from the commander in chief. A Democratic source close to the campaign said nothing like that is in the works, adding,
“But we are going to do whatever it takes to win in the primary.”
That brings turnout to mind. A mayor’s race in Shreveport, second to only New Orleans in terms of locales where Landrieu has long relied on minority votes in the past, will be important. In northeast Louisiana’s 5th Congressional District, a full slate card is currently being developed with Landrieu and Monroe Mayor Jamie Mayo up top. In the 6th Congressional District, much has been made about former Gov. Edwin Edwards being on the ballot, but Landrieu probably helps him more than he aids her.
Back in New Orleans, where Landrieu can pick up more than 100,000 votes, the street campaigns are gearing up in a real way.
“I think the Landrieu people and those of us supporting her efforts independently are content to run a two-week campaign,” said a Democratic operative from New Orleans. “She has been working on her infrastructure in Shreveport for years, but this is where it’s going down. The dirt isn’t going to be slung until early voting starts (on Oct. 21). That’s when you’ll start hearing about the direct mail and door hangers. That’s when the enthusiasm starts. It’s going to be a classic street campaign that pulls out all the stops, straight from the David Duke playbook. Food stamps, Medicaid, Katrina. All that stuff.”
Lee, a local political fixture, said he wasn’t surprised to hear that.
“I think it is going to come,” he said. “The ground game is going to be more important than anything else.”
A Republican Party official said those kinds of attacks will be difficult to defend against.
“I think it’s harder to run that kind of campaign than in the past, given the amount of access to information,” the party official said. “It’s difficult to understand how you can compare David Duke to Bill Cassidy, though, given Cassidy has spent his life working in the charity hospital system.”
They said it
“I’ve chased terrorists on secret missions in countries I can’t name.” —Retired Air Force Col. Rob Maness, a Republican candidate and Tea Party favorite, during last week’s U.S. Senate debate
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