Lawmakers privately warming to budget ideas

With an expected 2016-2017 budget deficit between $700 million and $1 billion, or possibly more, House members are continuing to meet privately on fiscal matters ahead of next year’s legislative sessions, which are expected to be stacked with tough decisions.

In the lower chamber, Republicans will continue to enjoy a majority status, but right now only 13 members separate them from the Democratic tally of 45 — before the runoff’s final legislative races. That means reaching 70 votes, which are needed for new taxes and other important bills requiring a two-thirds majority, next year may demand some creative politics.

In a meeting held last week that was hosted by Rep. Steve Carter, R-Baton Rouge, about 35 lawmakers, both Democrats and Republicans as well as seven true freshmen, gathered for briefings from economists and state officials.

The Committee of 100 for Economic Development presented its proposals last week as well to a smaller group of lawmakers, along with other interested parties. Additionally, Rep. John Schroder R-Covington, hosted a follow-up meeting on Friday to his October gathering where lawmakers were split into two groups to explore revenue and expenditure scenarios.

Lawmakers who have been attending these meetings say there’s early interest building for eliminating the federal income tax deduction, which would bring in $840 million for Louisiana.

There are a couple of problems with the idea, however, beginning with the fact that the benefits would not be felt until the 2017-2018 fiscal year, since it would require a constitutional amendment. The other major problem would be convincing voters why they should agree to pay more in taxes. That’s why some lawmakers are considering approaching the issue in concert with possible changes to tax rates. Some House members are likewise taking another hard look at excess itemized deductions.

It’s so early in the process, lawmakers say, that it’s difficult to distinguish right now what amounts to real interest and what is academic interest — in other words, a true consensus is still a ways off.

More immediately, the state is looking at midyear cuts for the current fiscal year budget to the tune of $370 million. Gov. Bobby Jindal’s administration is also working on a plan to tackle a $117 million deficit from the last fiscal year, making for a $500 million problem for which a solution will be offered well before Thanksgiving, according to the administration.

There’s likewise a shortfall in the TOPS scholarship program of $22 million and, due to a loss of federal funding, the state health care budget is short some $500 million. Both will eventually have to be addressed.

Lawmakers are expected to have at least one special session next year aimed at the structural problems that created the deficits, and to look into broader fiscal issues, before going into their regular session to craft the 2016-2017 budget along with other legislative instruments. The Cinderella story of the cycleHaving started out as a campaign effort with guerrilla marketing techniques, like a single billboard and ABV stickers (“Anybody But Vitter”), and with just $200,00 on TV in the primary, GUMBO PAC was expected to spend an additional $2.3 million on television in the gubernatorial runoff by election day, according to its handler.

That makes it one of the heaviest-spending organizations of the 2015 election cycle after months of being one of the quietest operators. In fact, at one point during the runoff, GUMBO PAC, in concert with state Rep. John Bel Edwards, was spending more money on TV than U.S. Sen. David Vitter’s campaign and the allied political action committees supporting his bid.

Consultant and PAC director Trey Ourso of Baton Rouge didn’t do it alone. He benefitted from a partnership with the Democratic Governors Association, which has put at least $1.5 million into his political action committee.

Vitter, who the PAC was created to oppose, even referred to his collective opposition as “Anybody But Vitter” during a recent forum, lifting from the PAC’s signature line.

From a crying baby to soundbites from failed primary candidates Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne and Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle, the PAC’s commercials have been headline-grabbers. Even Jefferson Parish Sheriff Newell Norman surfaced in a TV ad for GUMBO PAC last week speaking against Vitter’s candidacy.

Those soundbites from Dardenne and Angelle resurfaced this week as well in one of the most creative direct mail pieces of the year. When a voter opened the mail piece, a small electronic device played the quotes from the two men criticizing Vitter — just like the popular birthday cards that play music once opened.

GUMBO PAC fell under heavy fire this election season from the business community, mainly for allegedly being a magnet for donations from trial attorneys. Republican candidates chasing Democratic votesAttorney General Buddy Caldwell and former Congressman Jeff Landry got locked into a rare all-GOP runoff this fall and both made big moves for support from Democrats.

Landry, for example, launched a TV spot that featured third-place finisher Geri Broussard Baloney, who was endorsed by the Louisiana Democratic Party. He was also endorsed by the New Orleans Ministerial Alliance.

Caldwell fired back with an attack ad describing Landry as a “puppet” for out-of-state interests. The attorney general also circulated his own endorsement from the Louisiana Police Jury Association and he had a press conference on the Capitol steps with members of the Legislative Black Caucus.

If Republicans continue to end up in high-profile runoffs together in Louisiana’s open primary system, pundits and analysts predict that this could become a model for future races. They Said It“You need to grow a better beard.”— Duck Dynasty star Willie Robertson, to David Vitter, in a campaign commercial

 

About Jeremy Alford 227 Articles
Jeremy Alford is an independent journalist and the co-author of LONG SHOT, which recounts Louisiana's 2015 race for governor. His bylines appear regularly in The New York Times and he has served as an on-camera analyst for CNN, FOX News, MSNBC and C-SPAN.

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