Unlike last week’s NFC preview, for the AFC column, instead of ranking by divisions, I’m going to go straight through who I believe will be the six playoff qualifiers, in order of seeding.
1. Denver Broncos. Denver was a sitting duck last postseason with Peyton Manning playing with a torn quadriceps muscle — he couldn’t remotely push the ball down the field in that loss to the Colts in the Divisional Round — and the team parted ways with coach John Fox in the aftermath, bringing on former Texans coach Gary Kubiak.
The team may miss Fox’s defensive mind, but it went out and got Wade Phillips to return to Denver as defensive coordinator, which should mitigate, if not outright nullify, the damage there. Adding Kubiak may also have been a shrewd move by team president John Elway.
To keep Manning healthy for this postseason, Denver has vowed to stay true to the running game, and few can scheme it better than Kubiak. This is a team stacked with offensive weaponry, pass rushers and elite covermen on defense, and led by one of the greatest quarterback’s in NFL history.
I’m on board with that.
2. New England Patriots. The champs are here, and regardless of which way the Tom Brady suspension hearing goes, they’re going to get to the playoffs in the weaker AFC. New England lost corners Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, but the Patriots’ front seven has been rapidly rounding into a strong unit. The Pats will shift to a zone-based scheme, Bill Belichick’s forte, and probably continue as one of the league’s better units, if not as dominating.
Offensively, I expect Brady to play or, at worst, miss a game or two. Rob Gronkowski is a terror and everything revolves around him. The Patriots have a top five quarterback and the league’s best coach … they’ll keep winning, even if the footballs are a little harder than Brady and his team’s liking this season.
3. Indianapolis Colts. Andrew. Luck. OK, so there is a little more to Indy, which despite its rank as third on this list, could be in line for a Super Bowl appearance. It added a couple of potential difference-makers in Frank Gore and Andre Johnson who, though older vets, have remained productive. Gore, in particular, fills what’s been a particularly nasty hold at running back after the failed Trent Richardson deal of two years ago.
I won’t pick them to pass New England just yet — I just can’t, given how badly the Pats have beaten them in recent history — but they’ll be plenty good.
4. Baltimore Ravens. Another familiar name. Baltimore’s still nasty in the front seven defensively, and it could put together its best offensive finish in years with new offensive coordinator Marc Trestman in the fold. Trestman’s a passing game guru and reportedly the Ravens are keeping the same principles in the running game as departed coordinator Gary Kubiak installed, which sounds like a great match. The Ravens, Bengals or Steelers could win this division (sorry, Browns). I’ll side with Baltimore to reclaim it this year.
5. San Diego Chargers. Philip Rivers played arguably the best football of his career over the first 24 starts of his tenure under Chargers’ coach Mike McCoy, but an injury — as well as those to other key parts of the passing game — doomed him over his last eight games. He should be healthy, as should top pass-catching tailback Danny Woodhead, and San Diego added a potential star in its top draft pick Melvin Gordon.
Defensively, the Chargers are so-so. The secondary could be pretty good. The front seven will probably, again, be pretty “meh.” But Rivers played at a near MVP level over those non-injury starts, and that should go a long way.
6. New York Jets. Seriously. Don’t laugh! There have been worse quarterbacks than Ryan Fitzpatrick lead his team to the postseason. That’s not the most exciting way to lead off a summary of why a team is, in fact, on its way to the playoffs next season. But the Jets had two major problems last season: 1. Its secondary prevented the defense from being a true foundation of a good football team and 2. Quarterback play.
The first was answered in a big way, as one of the best front sevens in football now is backed up (once again) by Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie. The second, not as much.
But Fitzpatrick won’t hurt for downfield weaponry with the addition of Brandon Marshall, and Chan Gailey is a solid offensive mind. There’s always one surprise team. Who would shock the masses more than the J-E-T-S?
Postseason Prediction: Denver def. New England in championship game; Denver def. Green Bay in Super Bowl 50.
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