Trump’s polling slides in Louisiana

By Jeremy Alford & Mitch Rabalais

“Love him or hate him, most every (Louisiana) voter has an opinion about President Donald Trump.”

That was the analysis offered up by Bernie Pinsonat of Southern Media and Opinion Research, a Baton Rouge-based polling firm that conducted a statewide survey of 500 likely Louisiana voters from Nov. 28-30.

In that poll, Trump received the highest “excellent” job rating of any other elected official surveyed.

Trump also scored the highest “poor” rating notched in SMOR’s winter poll.

Plus the president received the lowest “don’t know” response.

But overall, when all of the “scales” were combined, Trump’s positive job rating in Louisiana was 48 percent.

Pinsonat said that rating is “down slightly” due to lower rankings awarded by black voters.

“Trump’s positive job ratings are almost exclusively from white voters, with only 7 percent of black voters giving him a positive rating, which is down from 16 percent in May,” Pinsonat said. “Eighty-eight percent of Republican voters rate his job performance as positive. Eighty-nine percent of black voters rate Trump’s job performance as negative.”

In the latest national Gallup poll, conducted Dec. 28-30, the president had an approval rating of 40 percent nationally and a disapproval rating of 55 percent.

That’s a far cry from the 58 percent Trump received from Louisiana voters when he appeared as the ballot as a presidential candidate on Nov. 8, 2016.

The political question is how much further can Trump fall in Louisiana.

Already some of the Bayou State’s delegation members, like U.S. Sen. John Kennedy and Congressman Garret Graves, R-Baton Rouge, are stepping outside of the party line to oppose a few of the president’s nominees.

The national narrative has been pushing some white Democrats away from the GOP, even in Louisiana, but the tax plan that was passed prior to the holidays gives Republicans a reason to spend money in the 2018 cycle to remind those voters why they liked elephants over donkeys in the first place, according to Pinsonat.

Special elections are coming

In the coming months voters statewide will be reminded that they’ll be heading back to the polls this fall to re-elect members of the United State Congress.

In some corners of Louisiana, however, there will be special elections for the Louisiana Legislature as well in the spring.

That includes House District 86 in Tangipahoa Parish, which is technically vacant due to the sudden resignation of former Rep. Chris Broadwater.

Hammond attorney Nicky Muscarello has already announced for the seat, but several others are looking at it, including, LaPolitics has learned, Democrat Brad Stevens, the nephew and former law partner of Gov. John Bel Edwards.

When asked recently who might win the race, the governor told The Advocate, without hinting at who might run, “It will be somebody that I know pretty well, probably.”

Other names to keep an eye on include Jimmy Gregory, an Independence Alderman and restauranteur, and David Vial, a parish councilman.

Janice Holland, who ran against Rep. Robby Carter, D-Greensburg, last cycle, and Rev. Ivory Dyson are being encouraged to run as well.

There will likewise be a spring special election in House District 93, which encompasses New Orleans’ French Quarter area and is being vacated by Rep. Helena Moreno, who was elected this past fall to the New Orleans City Council.

The list for this special election is becoming rather large, but for now the three names bubbling to the surface the most often are City Planning Commission Chair Royce Duplessis, attorney Kenny Bordes and former WDSU-TV anchor Camille Whitworth, who, like Moreno, has a journalism background.

Political History: The mother of all negative ads

Before John Bel Edwards’ “Prostitutes Over Patriots” ad shook the 2015 gubernatorial campaign, another TV spot set the bar for negativity in Louisiana’s political history.

In 1990, then-U.S. Sen. J. Bennett Johnston was in the race of his political life, trying to fight off a scrappy challenge from then-state Rep. David Duke, the famed white supremacist.

Dismissing his past KKK activities as “youthful indiscretions,” Duke pushed hard on his anti-tax, anti-trade and anti-affirmative action message. With an economic downturn, frustrated voters were far more receptive than expected.

Shedding the label of a “fringe candidate,” Duke became a serious threat. He packed arenas with frenzied crowds as he barnstormed across the state, while his signs began popping up like mushrooms along Louisiana highways.

Formidable as chairman of the Senate Energy Committee and influential as a leader in the Democratic Caucus, Johnston had been expected to win the re-election easily. His early TV spots focused on the economic impact of federal spending that the senator had brought home. Out on the stump, he refused even to mention Duke by name.

As summer turned to fall, however, the senator decided to go negative, incredulous at Duke’s momentum. Johnston went on a statewide bus tour, at each stop viciously attacking the challenger and reminding crowds of Duke’s Nazi and KKK connections.

Utilizing old tapes they had obtained, the Johnston campaign crafted the ad they believed would sink Duke. By September, it hit the airwaves.

The 30-second spot opened with a close up on a burning cross, its’ flames audibly crackling. Overlaid was an eerie musical score. A narrator intoned, “David Duke led the Ku Klux Klan…as an adult.”

Duke, in a suit, is then clearly shown speaking to a group of hooded Klansmen, leading them in Nazi salutes and chants of “White Victory.”

The spot (it can be seen here, at the :57 mark) shocked audiences. It received unprecedented free airtime, played in its entirety on both local and network news. Within a week, Duke’s poll numbers took a six-point dip.

Johnston, for his part, triumphed on Election Day with 54 percent of the vote.

As for Duke, he wasn’t quite done and announced his candidacy for governor just a few weeks later.

They Said It

“I had to be 50 and a governor to stay at home.”

—Gov. John Bel Edwards, explaining that he finally got to host Christmas at his house

“He had a rougher year than most of us… It’s a hell of a way to lose weight.”

—President Donald Trump, on House Majority Whip Steve Scalise, a gunshot victim, to an NBC News reporter


About Jeremy Alford 227 Articles
Jeremy Alford is an independent journalist and the co-author of LONG SHOT, which recounts Louisiana's 2015 race for governor. His bylines appear regularly in The New York Times and he has served as an on-camera analyst for CNN, FOX News, MSNBC and C-SPAN.

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