April 30, 2005

In the Batter's Box

with Eric LeBlanc

April Surprises

At the end of each April, the baseball community finally has some legitimate statistics to work with. Two weeks are enough to track trends and see what players are hot and cold. But a month's worth of stats are a greater sample of what kind of season a player is headed towards or they could mean absolutely nothing at all. But we here at In The Batter's Box like to think that they mean something. Otherwise, this is going to be a very short column.

First, let's start out with the good. Rookie surprises are always good, and Toronto Blue Jays starter Gustavo Chacin is no exception. In five starts, Chacin is 4-1 with a 2.48 ERA and 18 strikeouts. If he keeps that up, he might be a shoo-in for Rookie of the Year and a serious contender for the Cy Young. Rockies' second baseman Clint Barmes is another breakout rookie who is hitting .421 with four homers and 14 RBIs. Barmes is a good candidate for becoming a decent Coors Field slugger if given the opportunity.

Older veterans who just keep chugging along are also common among early surprises. One of those would be 42-year old Jamie Moyer who is currently 4-0 with a 2.53 ERA and 23 strikeouts. Now Moyer has four speeds: slow, slower, really slow and does that have enough on it to make it across the plate? But he changes those speeds so well that he has been one of the most successful pitchers in the majors for the last 10 years. Will he have enough to get through the season? What are we asking, Moyer has not had a bad season on a year ending with an odd number since 1995.

Another veteran that has surprised so far this year is Texas outfielder David Dellucci who is hitting .298 with a .492 on-base percentage. He also has four home runs and 18 runs scored. In the Rangers' high powered offense, you would think that Dellucci would quickly be reduced to a reserve role. But he is making the most of an opportunity and has shown breakout potential for some time.

But perhaps the best surprises are the ones that come out of nowhere. Rookies are unpredictable and veterans can get better with age, but who can explain the success of Brandon Lyon? After posting a 6.53 ERA as a starter for Toronto in 2002, Lyon was marginally successful as a middle reliever in 2003 for the Boston Red Sox. Then after not having pitched in the majors last year because of arm problems, to be thrust into the closer's role and quickly rack up 10 saves and a 1.42 ERA is nothing short of incredible. It will be interesting to see if Lyon can stay consistent. The last time he was a closer, he started well but couldn't hold on to the job.

They say hitters often peak at age 27. And it seems that Orioles' second baseman Brian Roberts is on Mount Everest. He already has exceeded his career high in home runs with the seven he currently has. And he's only 30 RBIs from matching his career high in RBIs with five months left in the season. With steroid testing more strict this season, it's good to see that we still have some little guys legitimately hitting the ball out of the ballpark consistently. Otherwise, the clouds of uncertainty would most certainly be circling over Roberts' head.

And then there are the flops. And none of the players that has had a rough April has been targeted for flop status more than the Phillies' Jim Thome. Who would have thought that he would have only one home run and 10 RBIs while batting just .205 at this point in the season. A's third baseman Eric Chavez joins him in the disappointment category with a .181 average, two home runs and just eight RBIs. On the pitching side, with the exception of injuries such as ones to Eric Gagne and Armando Benitez, Mariano Rivera is one of the early season disappointments. With only three saves, two blown saves against the Red Sox and an ERA that is uncharacteristically high, Rivera may be on the decline after years of dominance. But still, a 3.18 ERA is not too shabby for all but the most dominant of closers. But Rivera is supposed to be one of those. And George Steinbrenner, I’m sure, will remind him of that if the Yanks don’t turn it around fast.

Eric LeBlanc hopes his column is one the April good surprises, otherwise this will be a long season. He can be surprised, flabbergasted or befuddled at (985) 758-2795 or by e-mail at EricL@heraldguide.com.