April 2, 2005

In the Batter's Box

with Eric LeBlanc

National League Preview

At the eve of the 2005 baseball season, it’s time to predict the outcome of the division races. We’ll check up at midseason to see how I did. And if I didn’t do well, we may not check it out at all.

NL East

1. Atlanta Braves: The Braves upgraded their starting pitching this season with the acquisition of Tim Hudson and the return of John Smoltz. But, they may have shot themselves in the foot offensively with Brian Jordan and Raul Mondesi in the corner outfield positions. But Bobby Cox gets more out of his players than any other manager, so I’m not betting against the Braves until they look completely hopeless.

2. Florida Marlins: The Marlins look like a team ready to take down the Braves this season. With Carlos Delgado now manning first base, Miguel Cabrera and Mike Lowell become all the more dangerous. And with a starting staff of Josh Beckett, Al Leiter, A.J. Burnett and Dontrelle Willis the Marlins will push the Braves harder than they have been pushed in years.

3. New York Mets: The Mets are finally moving in the right direction. With Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran now in blue, the Mets have legitimized themselves and may be competitive this year. They still have a couple of holes and injury prone players. That will keep them from catching the Braves or Marlins.

4. Philadelphia Phillies: The Phils should do better this year without the fire breathing Larry Bowa at the helm. Thome, Abreu and Burrell can carry an offense, but Leiber and Wolf may not be able to carry the pitching staff. The Phils are improving, but not enough to warrant serious consideration in a very tough division.

5. Washington National: The new Nats should do better this year now that they don’t have to travel to Puerto Rico every month. They will actually have fans that want to see them as well. The pitching should be pretty good with Livan Hernandez as the ace, but the big questions are in the offense led by Vinny Castilla (can he produce outside Coors?), Jose Guillen and Nick Johnson (can they stay injury-free?). They will be good, but in this division, good isn’t good enough.

NL Central

1. St. Louis Cardinals: The Cardinals will not be affected by last year’s World Series loss. They will just be hungry for another shot all the more. With Pujols, Rolen, Walker and Edmonds in the middle of the lineup and a starting rotation with Chris Carpenter and Mark Mulder at the helm, the Cardinals should breeze through most of the regular season. The only question is if the Cubs can keep up long enough to make it an interesting race.

2. Chicago Cubs: Without Sammy and Moises Alou, the Cubs will have to rely on their starters more than ever this season. But can Mark Prior and Kerry Wood stay healthy? If they do, the Cubs will win this division. If they don’t, the bottom will fall out.

3. Houston Astros: The injury bug has bitten the Astros early again this season with Lance Berkman going down for a month. But even without the third Killer B, the Astros should be okay because of their starting pitching (Clemens, Oswalt and Pettitte). And closer Brad Lidge is completely unhittable.

4. Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers are getting better, but very few people are noticing. Staff ace Ben Sheets is one of the best in the majors. And if Carlos Lee can jumpstart a lagging offense, the Brewers may find themselves in contention deep into the season.

5. Cincinnati Reds: Even if Griffey, Kearns and Dunn can play together for an entire season, the Reds starting pitching is going to keep them from contending. Look for the home run totals of opposing teams to soar this season against the Reds.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates: If the Pirates were in a division with the Devil Rays, Tigers, Rockies and Royals they may have a chance. But they aren’t, so it’s nearly hopeless. Behind Oliver Perez, the pitching will be decent. But beyond Jason Bay and Matt Lawton, the offense is very suspect. However, the Pirates are the one team in this division that could surprise everyone.

NL West

1. Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers have a very good pitching staff. They always do. But their hitting in recent years has been their downfall. But that may change this year with the additions of J.D. Drew and Jeff Kent. If Hee Seop Choi and Jason Phillips can hit this season, the Dodgers will have a great chance of winning the division.

2. San Francisco Giants: Even with Barry Bonds, the Giants were going to have an uphill battle to win the West this season. Now with the future uncertain, Pedro Feliz will have to fill Bonds’ shoes. But Feliz has been waiting for this chance. Look for him to become a star while the pitching staff fades somewhat behind Jason Schimdt.

3. San Diego Padres: The Padres have great hitters, but they play in a pitcher’s park. They have good pitching, but Brian Giles, Phil Nevin and Ryan Klesko are tired of their home run totals being reduced by as much as a third each year. With Burroughs out of the leadoff spot and Dave Roberts in, those three hitters shouldn’t suffer in the RBI category this season, however.

4. Arizona Diamondbacks: The D-Backs, even without the Big Unit should be better this season. The added power of Troy Glaus and Shawn Green could keep them out of the cellar and the newly acquired Javier Vasquez should adequately serve as their ace.

5. Colorado Rockies: The Rockies have given up trying to win with pitching and defense. Why did they try that in the first place? It seems that with this new crop of prospects, the Rockies are gong back to what worked in the beginning: let the hackers hack and hope they score more than the other team.

Eric LeBlanc will review the American League next week only because it wouldn’t all fit in this week. He can be sized up at (985) 758-2795 or by e-mail at EricL@heraldguide.com.