Hurricanes - Itís all in the math!
Renown Colorado State University hurricane researcher, Dr. William Gray has made predictions for over the 50-year with impressive accuracy. Unfortunately, he was close to his record-breaking predictions of the 2005 Hurricane Season. For the 2006 season he predicts there will be 17 storms, nine hurricanes, five of them major. The numbers are lower than last season, but five major storms would be the most we have ever had in one season.
Gray and other forecasters all say the culprit is a warming ocean, since 1975 there has been a one-degree increase. But forecasters are divided on what is causing this rise. Some attribute global warming from man-made causes. Folks like Dr. Gray say the warming is part of a natural cycle that has occurred several times in the past.
With everyone in the Gulf South still rattled as we struggle to rebound from the worst natural disaster in American History, one have to wonder what all this could mean for Southeast Louisiana? That is where math plays a factor. It is all a matter of possibilities verses probabilities.
It is possible we could get one of the five major storms expected this season, but it just isnít probable, at least not if past history has anything to say about this. Two things work in our favor.
First, major storms seldom make landfall in the United States. Historically, most stay out to sea or impact other countries. And of those who do impact the U.S., history tells us that it is Florida who is the most vulnerable as they have the higher number of major strikes than any other state.
Second, itís the 30-year rule that suggests we have an advantage. On average, New Orleans receives a Hurricane every thirty years or so. Sure, we have our close calls almost every year, but where a storm makes landfall makes all the difference in the world. In the case of Hurricane Katrina, 30 miles meant the difference of total destruction or moderate to minor impact. The time between Hurricanes Betsy and Katrina was 39 years.
But that doesnít mean it canít happen, it just means that if history tells us anything, another major strike in New Orleans, although possible, it just isnít probable.
There is something that we are prone to however. As we well know, a storm doesnít have to be a direct strike to cause us problems and our probability of that happening is on average, every other year. Factor in the margin of error that could expose us on any given year.
There is one major thing to keep in mind while trying to find something positive from all of this. You have to know that in college, I barely passed math and did not take a single meteorologist courses. So, my guess is as good as the next guys.
Subscribe Today and Save!!!
St. Charles Herald-Guide is an award-winning newspaper that covers all aspects of St. Charles Parish - from schools and parish government news to social events, features on our local residents and sports.
Order your subscription today!
The Louisiana attorney generalís office recently ruled that it is against the law...
After surviving cancer, a Hahnville makeup artist has forged a special relationship...
The Triangle Food Store at the intersection of Paul Maillard and River roads in...
A justice of the peace candidate might face censure, or worse, pending a ruling...
St. Charles Parish residents with barns, warehouses or buildings full of odd,...
Though much of his work for the Navy remains classified, a former Des Allemands...
It's All About You Interiors will help you turn your dream home into reality! At The Potting Shed Florist it is our mission to bring life and joy through the use of flowers and gardens!
Triangle Food Store set to reopen following liquid marijuana bust - 1028 views
The Triangle Food Store at the intersection of Paul Maillard and River roads in Luling will reopen soon under the name Luling Discount. The store closed two months ago following the arrests of the former owner and manager for selling liquid marijuana.